When is the Aussie Trade Balance, and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

Australian Trade Balance overview

Early Wednesday at 01:30 GMT will be seeing the latest round of Australia's Trade Balance figures for July. Australia's Trade Balance is forecast to contract to $1.4 billion versus the previous month's $1.873 billion, with June's Exports only growing by 3% and Imports declining by -1%, and traders are bracing for a continued uneven decay within Australia's trade figures, exacerbating the already-wobbly Trade Balance. 

According to analysts at TD Securities, today's reading could come in better than expected on the back of recent trade data between China and Australia: "the trade balance for Jul is expected to be a surplus of +$A1.7b (mkt +$A1.45b) after guidance from the recent Chinese trade report suggesting bumper imports (+0.9%/m) slightly outpacing still solid exports (+0.5%/m)."

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

Australia's GDP figures yesterday came in far better than expected, taking the Australian growth rate even further into the comfortable side of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range, and AUD bulls will be looking for a second day in a row. Trade factors such as exposure to China amidst the US-Sino trade war remains a bearish factor for the AUD/USD, as the pair remains trapped near 2018 lows at 0.7145, with descending highs marking in declining resistance from August's last swing high at 0.7380; bulls will be looking for the Trade Balance reading to help spur the pair back over yesterday's highs approaching 0.7220 in an effort to capture the 0.7200 major handle, while a flubbed reading on trade concerns will see the pair stumbling back into new lows for the year.

Key notes

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Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance

About the Australian Trade Balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.