Back
28 Feb 2014
Flash: NZD swap market to support NZD? - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - RBS strategists noted that the New Zealand business survey (own outlook) rose from 53.5 to 58.5 in Feb, extending to a new high in the series in two decades while they eye a break in 2yr NZD to the topside.
Key Quotes:
“Exports rose from 29 to 31, investment rose from 22 to 35, employment rose from 25 to 32. inflation expectations edged up from 2.5 to 2.6% a high since May-2012”.
“The data show strength in housing and high commodity prices has spread across the economy and suggests rate hikes are needed soon”.
“While these are probably fully priced, the data increase the risk of somewhat faster hikes. 2yr swap rates have firmed 1.5bp since the data”.
“Given the yield seeking nature of the current market near term risk is a topside break of the range in NZD over the last six months”.
Key Quotes:
“Exports rose from 29 to 31, investment rose from 22 to 35, employment rose from 25 to 32. inflation expectations edged up from 2.5 to 2.6% a high since May-2012”.
“The data show strength in housing and high commodity prices has spread across the economy and suggests rate hikes are needed soon”.
“While these are probably fully priced, the data increase the risk of somewhat faster hikes. 2yr swap rates have firmed 1.5bp since the data”.
“Given the yield seeking nature of the current market near term risk is a topside break of the range in NZD over the last six months”.