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26 May 2017
CME Group FedWatch's June hike probability drew close to 90% on US Data
CME Group FedWatch tool, which calculates unconditional probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes to generate a binary probability tree, shows that the probability of a June rate hike on Friday leaped to 87.7% from 83% on Thursday as today's data showed that the increase in consumer spending continued to boost the GDP growth in the U.S. Furthermore, recently released strong earning reports from big retailers such as Best Buy and Macy's have been also supportive of that assessment.
- US: Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.2% in the first quarter of 2017
- US: The PCE price index increased 2.4% in first quarter of 2017
- US: Consumer sentiment remains solid since Trump's election - UoM