US: Median forecast is for 175k-185k rise in June nonfarm payroll - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the FOMC minutes from the June meeting may be of some passing interest, but events have superseded it. 

Key Quotes

“While Yellen said at her press conference that a July hike was "not impossible,” the bar is high and it will take more than a healthy jobs report to change this assessment.  Vice Chairman Fischer underscored this point at the end of last week. 

The US also reports trade, durable goods orders, and the non-manufacturing PMI.  These reports will help economists fine-tune forecasts for Q2 GDP, which by most reckoning is nearly double the Q1 pace.   The most important report, of course, is the jobs data. 

We regard last month's 38k print as a statistical fluke; that seems to take place once a year or so, within a gradual moderation of the pace of job growth.  The median forecast is for a 175k-185k rise in June nonfarm payrolls.  The 6-month average is 170k. The 12-month average is 200k.  The unemployment rate may tick up to 4.8% from 4.7%.  The workweek is expected to be flat, while a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings would be sufficient for the year-over-year pace to rise to 2.7%, which would represent a new cyclical high."