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21 Dec 2015
Eurozone: Inflation, unemployment and retail sales to offer volatility – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that the Eurozone HICP inflation for December 2015 is due for release on the Tuesday of the first week of 2016.
Key Quotes
“Despite the oil price decline in the first part of December, we expect inflation to increase to +0.5% y/y in December, from +0.2% y/y in November. We base our forecast on an assumption that energy prices will decline by 1.0% m/m in December but despite this large fall the yearly change should be less negative due to last year’s base effects. Core inflation is also set to increase to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in November. German HICP inflation including regional figures for CPI inflation is due for release on Monday, while the Spanish HICP inflation figure is scheduled for release on 30 December.”
“On Thursday 7 January, the euro area unemployment rate and retail sales for November are set to be released. The unemployment rate reached 10.7% in October 2015, down from 11.5% a year earlier. We expect the downward trend to continue, as activity should pick up and potential growth remains very low. The progress in the labour market, together with the low oil price, has supported growth in private consumption in 2015. We expect this to continue to be reflected in the retail sales figure for November, where we look for an increase of 0.4% m/m.”
Key Quotes
“Despite the oil price decline in the first part of December, we expect inflation to increase to +0.5% y/y in December, from +0.2% y/y in November. We base our forecast on an assumption that energy prices will decline by 1.0% m/m in December but despite this large fall the yearly change should be less negative due to last year’s base effects. Core inflation is also set to increase to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in November. German HICP inflation including regional figures for CPI inflation is due for release on Monday, while the Spanish HICP inflation figure is scheduled for release on 30 December.”
“On Thursday 7 January, the euro area unemployment rate and retail sales for November are set to be released. The unemployment rate reached 10.7% in October 2015, down from 11.5% a year earlier. We expect the downward trend to continue, as activity should pick up and potential growth remains very low. The progress in the labour market, together with the low oil price, has supported growth in private consumption in 2015. We expect this to continue to be reflected in the retail sales figure for November, where we look for an increase of 0.4% m/m.”