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4 Jun 2015
US NFP expected to print a below consensus number – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Research Analysts at Nomura forecast US NFP to print a 190K result, below the consensus expectations at 227K.
Key Quotes
“We expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to announce on Friday, 5 June, that a net new 190k jobs were added to US nonfarm payrolls in May. Our forecast is below the 223k jobs added in April and the Consensus expectation of 227k.”
“Incoming data have been mixed and suggest that improvement in economic activity has likely been modest at best. Moreover, some of the gains in April’s payrolls were probably a rebound from the slow job growth in March. It is also possible that April’s payroll growth was skewed upward by the April calendar bias. Thus, we believe payroll growth near 200k is more indicative of the underlying pace of job gains. Also, under reasonable assumptions for labor productivity growth, job gains near 200k seem consistent with the recent trend of economic growth.”
“Last, we forecast that government employment increased by 5k in May, near its recent average, and that private payrolls rose by 185k. This is also in line with the estimate implied by our May Private Payrolls Tracking estimate.”
Key Quotes
“We expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to announce on Friday, 5 June, that a net new 190k jobs were added to US nonfarm payrolls in May. Our forecast is below the 223k jobs added in April and the Consensus expectation of 227k.”
“Incoming data have been mixed and suggest that improvement in economic activity has likely been modest at best. Moreover, some of the gains in April’s payrolls were probably a rebound from the slow job growth in March. It is also possible that April’s payroll growth was skewed upward by the April calendar bias. Thus, we believe payroll growth near 200k is more indicative of the underlying pace of job gains. Also, under reasonable assumptions for labor productivity growth, job gains near 200k seem consistent with the recent trend of economic growth.”
“Last, we forecast that government employment increased by 5k in May, near its recent average, and that private payrolls rose by 185k. This is also in line with the estimate implied by our May Private Payrolls Tracking estimate.”